Russ Harvey Consulting - Computer and Internet Services

Reliable COVID-19 Information

Resources for remaining safe

Forecast • Not Over • Mutating • Spread by Aerosols
Long COVID • Remaining Healthy • The Vulnerable
In the Beginning • The Failures • Verify Info

COVID-19 on a black background with circles and disks.

 

How to have a long and healthy life: The fewest reinfections as possible, with the lowest viral load, while as vaccinated as possible.

We are all sick and tired of COVID-19.

 

For some people the symptoms seem milder, but we know that the effects of COVID are cumulative and unpredictable, that it can cause damage to the heart, lungs, brain, vascular and endocrine system, even with mild symptoms, and can lead to serious long-term disability.

 

Physicians are writing medical notes for leaves of absence for months or years for previously healthy young patients who have brain fog, fatigue or heart arrhythmias and chronic shortness of breath.
— Dr. Nili Kaplan-Myrth, Aug. 01, 2024

The Current Forecast

COVID forecast January 4–January 17, 2025.

Data is dynamic (graphic captured on January 11th).
Canadian COVID data site | Hazard Index Inputs.

 

Canada COVID forecast January 4–January 17, 2025.
BC COVID forecast January 4–January 17, 2025.

The Canada/BC graphics don't get updated after release.

 

How to Help

Who is HIGH RISK?

  • People 60 and older, babies <1 year, pregnant.
  • ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at risk OR no vaccine or infection last 6 months.

See Holiday Dance Night risk scenario / risk estimation.

Risk for Exposure

Staying healthy means avoiding exposure, especially if you're at high risk. Avoid riskier activities and take the necessary precautions reduce the risk.

Risk for exposure is based on four main factors:

  1. enclosed spaces;
  2. duration of interaction;
  3. crowds; and
  4. forceful exhalation.

 

What's New?

January 4, 2025

Please note: This week's forecast is provisional, because we are still missing some key input data from the most recent few weeks. Reporting likely won't be complete until mid-January. This is normal in Canada over the holidays. The next Forecast with more complete input data will likely be January 18, 2025.

 

Forecast scores continue to decline, but not as fast as they were declining in the Dec 21/24 Forecast (decreasing 4%/week for Canada, -3% to -5%/week for all regions).

 

About 1 in 126 people in Canada are currently infected (~41,000 infections/day). Estimated infection prevalence is considerably lower than the United States (1 in 50 infected: https://x.com/michael_hoerger/status/1873824240790589934). Infection prevalence in the United States about 1-2 months ago was similar to current prevalence in Canada.

 

Infections, hospitalizations and deaths are all decreasing about 3%/week. This is not a statistically significant decrease, meaning they are stable. Expected excess mortality due to COVID-19 is high (6.6%). This corresponds to about 365 untimely ("from" not "with") COVID-19 deaths per week in Canada.
— Canadian COVID Data Table

COVID-19 Data Collection Sources

Tara Moriarty of Moriarty Lab and her fellow researchers have done a tremendous job of collecting and compiling this information.

Modelling Now Based Upon Wastewater

[T]he lack of national collaboration resulted in the closure of Canada's Long-Term Care COVID-19 Tracker. It's what had made clear that nearly half of Canada's COVID deaths were taking place in long-term care homes, something easily seen within a few months after the start of the pandemic. Understanding that link was made possible by the provinces and territories willingness to supply accurate, timely data.

 

When this critical tracker came to a halt in July 2022, its website didn't mince words. It "was not because the threat to LTC homes had ended, but rather because many of Canada's provincial and territorial government … were no longer providing enough reliable, timely data." Vital health information was withheld in the midst of an ongoing pandemic.
— The Star Oct. 25, 2024

Return to top

It's NOT Over

People were eager to quit wearing masks and to return to enjoying events, travel, theatre, sports and much more. This is nothing but wishful thinking empowered by governments concerned with optics responding to pressure from corporations more concerned with profits than either are with people.

Canadians are dying at record rates. “We're currently seeing nearly as many excess deaths each year in Canada (~40K annually) as Canadian deaths in all of WWIl.” Clearly COVID is not over and until we bring in measures to mitigate this airborne virus, our healthcare system will continue to be in crisis.
— Protect Our Province BC October 10, 2024
Of course Covid isn't going away. It was never predisposed to "go away" or wither away by itself. It's *our job* to kick it out.
— Gosia Gaspero PhD, Developmental Biologist, Researcher March 8, 2022

While our governments claim that COVID is over, it continues to be an extremely dangerous disease. “Long COVID” may result in as much as 20% of our work force being permanently disabled.

Canada's health system reels as by one estimate 1,000 die weekly. Each infection carries risks. Where's the prevention?

 

Although the media routinely dismisses all COVID infections as an inconsequential nuisance, that's not what the science says. The virus remains deadlier than the flu and repeated infections can radically change your health…on an annual basis COVID infections still account for 20 times more deaths than influenza.

 

Meanwhile Canada's hospital emergency rooms, many already stretched before the pandemic, continue to open and close with troubling frequency across the country due to chronic staff shortages and sick workers.
— The Tyee September 3, 2024

Institutions Have Failed Us

Our governments and institutions have failed to keep us informed. Instead, they've spread a narrative that COVID is over, claiming victory where none exists. They say they're “following the science” but it was strictly for political gain.

The result? We're left on our own to assess personal risk while the information we need to gauge that risk is discontinued or unpublished.

And institutions have failed to provide clear and up-to-date guidance on COVID transmission, including that transmission is largely airborne, making handwashing less useful and masking an essential component of infection protection; asymptomatic transmission is substantial, requiring masking even if feeling well; and post-COVID chronic illness (often referred to as long COVID) occurs in up to 3.5 per cent of first COVID infections, even more in subsequent infections and even in fully vaccinated, healthy individuals.

 

How can health workers make informed choices given the lack of accurate information?
— Calgary Herald Aug. 30, 2024
The subject of how to respond to a slow burn pandemic remains taboo because most public health officials have already declared the emergency over. They've also stopped collecting critical data. COVID-19 deaths in Canada are not reported in a readily publicly accessible fashion. And most of the media pretends that an immune-destabilizing virus that can harm the functioning of your organs including your brain has little more import than a benign cold.

 

As a consequence, authorities can't now turn around and admit to the breadth of their mistake, let alone acknowledge the growing disorder in public health. Nor do they dare collect critical data documenting the scale of their errors including the relentless march of long COVID.

 

Meanwhile the virus continues to out-evolve our response and vaccines.
— The Tyee September 3, 2024

Truth Tellers the Achilles Heel

Finally, truth tellers are the Achilles heel of collective denial because they call attention to what's swept under the rug. Thus another playbook tactic is to hush them up, often by painting them as subversives or deviants.

 

And so those who wear masks are ridiculed, scientists reporting on COVID-19 risks are cast as fearmongers, and those with long COVID are dismissed as having anxiety disorders.
— Scientific American June 18, 2024

The Elites Know It's Not Over

While elites take every COVID precaution possible when they meet with each other at the World Economic Forum, they go home and tell us that COVID is no longer a threat, and the pandemic is over. Actions speak louder than words.
— Dr. Lucky Tran

NOT “Just Like the Flu”

COVID deaths have far outpaced deaths from the flu. A disproportionate number of the dying were immunocompromised.

While the two can present with similar symptoms — like fever, cough, fatigue, sore throat, muscle aches, and headache — and are both more likely to be fatal for the elderly and immunocompromised, the comparison falls apart when it comes to the death toll.

 

Since the earliest days of the pandemic, weekly COVID deaths have been at least 15 times that of weekly flu deaths — and sometimes as much as 811 times.
— Why COVID isn't like the flu (yet) in one brutal graph Fortune, September 27, 2022

Influenza vs COVID-19 deaths in Canada.
Source: Canadian COVID Data, November 2024

Return to top

COVID is Not “Mild” — It is Mutating

One misconception is that COVID is the same today as it was in 2020. Omicron has been characterized as “mild” and many people mistake these symptoms as “only a cold.”

For some people, COVID has manifested similarly to a cold — with mild symptoms that go away in a matter of days. That personal experience can lead many of us to believe that COVID is no longer a major threat, and no more dangerous to our health than the flu.

 

But the data don't back that up. COVID is undeniably more dangerous.
— Medscape November 21, 2024
Anyone who gets infected with corona more often runs the risk of developing an incurable immune deficiency. According to Health Minister Lauterbach, this is indicated by various studies that are currently being further researched. As a result, the risk of chronic diseases such as dementia would increase.
— Archyde January 21, 2023

COVID Variants

Not only have there been numerous variations, but also variations within the variations. We're now dealing with “a viral soup.”

Viruses like SARS-CoV-2 mutate frequently, and when they mutate to evade recognition by antibodies, this often weakens their ability to bind to the cells they want to infect. We then see mutations appear that improve that binding ability.

 

This is a cycle we have seen many times with SARS-CoV-2. The fact that these different variants are picking up the same mutations tells virologists that this combination of mutations is helping the virus accomplish these goals most efficiently.
— Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health May 13, 2024

Newer, more virulent, variations could appear at any time combining the ability to spread extremely quickly yet be far more deadly.

Visualization Tool

Mike Honey's visualization tool defaults to Australia but provides the ability to generate data for a specific country, province or worldwide. The recent trends for British Columbia are shown below:

Recent COVID-19 Genomic Sequencing analysis for British Columbia.

Return to top

COVID Spreads by Aerosols

Every time you breathe, laugh, sing, shout, cough or sneeze, you spread micro particles (aerosols) into the air.

It was first said that SARS-CoV-2 was spread mostly via heavy droplets that quickly fall to the ground. The World Health Organization eventually acknowledged COVID is largely spread via tiny, fine aerosol particles.
— National Post
[T]he team estimates that a high shedder could potentially exhale enough virus to infect someone in a closed space in about 20 seconds, making even elevator rides risky.
— Science News

 

Just Like Smoke

Think of how your breathe vapors travel when outside in cold weather or how cigarette smoke can hang in the air. Just as cigarette smoke is more concentrated if you're near the person smoking, being closer to an infected person increases your risk.

[T]he team estimates that a high shedder could potentially exhale enough virus to infect someone in a closed space in about 20 seconds, making even elevator rides risky.
— Science News
Covid spreads in the air like smoke. At least half of Covid transmission happens before people develop symptoms — or even if they never develop symptoms — so people frequently spread the virus without knowing it.

 

That's why layered protection — the combination of masks, tests and ventilation — is so important.
— Theodore Pak, Lara Jirmanus and Andrew Wang

Improved Airflow in Buildings

Because COVID is spread by aerosols, high quality N95-type masks and improved airflow within buildings are necessary to stem the spread of COVID.

The WHO Knew in May 2020

The World Health Organization knew that COVID was airborne before the return to their Geneva office on May 21, 2020, yet continued to propagate the lie that it was not.

In the context of COVID-19, the measures recommended by REHVA are to run ventilation systems with no air circulation and to run the ventilation units at maximum capacity to ensure that 100% fresh air is injected into the ventilated space. This measure reduces the spread of all air-borne viruses.
— UN Geneva Back To Office Plan May 2020

Return to top

Long COVID

Long Covid can manifest in people across the life span (from children to older adults) and across race and ethnicity, sex, and baseline health status It is a complex non-monolithic multisystemic disease with sequelae across almost all organ systems.
— C-19 Blog 22 February 2024

Long COVID is a long-term threat to not only our healthcare system, but also to our economy as a once-healthy workforce becomes incapacitated by debilitating chronic conditions lasting for a year or more.

Long COVID, a major public health crisis, is also becoming a significant economic crisis. A new study in Nature reports that the global annual economic impact of long COVID has hit $1 trillion — or about 1% of the global economy.

 

Long COVID is estimated to affect 6%–7% of adults. Those afflicted are often unable to work for extended periods, and some simply stop working altogether.

 

The latest survey from the National Center for Health Statistics estimated 17.3%–18.6% of adults have experienced long COVID. This isn't the same as those who have it now, only a broad indicator of people who've ever experienced symptoms.
— David Brzostowicki, Medscape October 21, 2024
By June 2023, about one in nine (11.7%) of the total adult population reported experiencing long-term symptoms, defined as the presence of symptoms three or more months after a COVID-19 infection that could not be explained by anything else.

 

This represents 3.5 million Canadians, and nearly 1 in 5 (19.0%) Canadian adults who had been infected at least once.
— Statistics Canada December 8, 2023
COVID can cause organ damage — particularly affecting the heart, kidneys, skin. Plus, there's risk of brain and immune damage, along with increased risks for cancer and autoimmune disease.

 

And, while no one knows yet how long that damage could persist, a study published in the Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine says 59 per cent of Long COVID patients had organ damage a year later.
— Urban Affairs May 12, 2023

Not only that, but physicians and other medical personnel are experiencing burnout at an accelerated rate. Funding for long COVID is expensive and drying up.

In the largest genetic study of its kind to date, 23andMe scientists have identified variants associated with an increased risk of developing Long COVID and also established a genetic link between the potentially debilitating condition and other chronic conditions such as depression, chronic fatigue syndrome, and fibromyalgia.

 

A little over 7 percent of people infected with COVID-19 will develop Long COVID, while more than half of those with severe cases will develop the lingering condition. Understanding the underlying biology and associations may help scientists understand how to treat the condition better.
— 23andMe Blog October 11, 2024

Neutralized Immunity

Evidence is growing that breakthrough infections neutralize immunity and damage our T-cells which have a significant role in protecting us from COVID and other diseases.

COVID-19 causes turnover and aging of the immune cells responsible for responding to both COVID-19 and other pathogens.

 

We know that reinfections occur, and they seem to be increasing. With our present high levels of transmission, many individuals will likely be experiencing two or more infections per year going forward. The immune system is damaged for more than half a year after infection….
— World Health Network

Early Onset of Diseases

Long COVID includes the early onset of diseases such as heart disease and heart attacks and presents with symptoms like neurological issues, blood clots, increased rare Cancers and chronic fatigue.

C19.life examines the many degenerative effects of COVID-19 including attacks on the heart, the brain, immunity, and other areas of the body.

COVID is a unique virus because it can spread far and wide in a patient's body. A December 2022 study, published in the journal Nature, autopsied 44 people who died of COVID and found that the virus could spread throughout the body and persist, in one case as long as 230 days after symptoms started. “We know that there are dozens of symptoms across multiple organ systems,” said McCorkell. “That makes it harder for a primary care physician to connect the dots and associate it with COVID.”
— Medscape

Link to Heart Health

There is increasing evidence that a link exists between COVID-19 and heart health. The biggest increase (30%) was in those between 25 and 40 years old, spiking after each COVID wave. COVID itself is 11 times as likely to cause myocarditis than the vaccine according to Dr. John Ores.

New data appears to show link between COVID and heart disease

 

Diagnosing Long COVID

More than 200 symptoms have been identified with impacts on multiple organ systems. At least 65 million individuals worldwide are estimated to have long COVID, with cases increasing daily.
— Davis et al 2023 Nature Reviews Microbiology
The possibility of diagnosing long COVID with a simple blood test could radically change some doctors' false perceptions that it is not a real condition, Iwasaki said, ensuring it is recognized and treated with the seriousness it deserves.

 

"I feel like we need to get there with long COVID. If we can order a blood test and say somebody has a long COVID because of these values, then suddenly the diseases become medically explainable," Iwasaki added.
— Medscape

The Doctor's checklist for treating long COVID patients provides an excellent summary with links to supporting research papers that are much more scientific in their language.

Prevention

While there is no known way to prevent long COVID, it appears that getting vaccinated can reduce the risk. Other forms of protection, like masks and improving indoor ventilation, significantly better your odds of remaining healthy.

You can't [prevent long COVID], but one of the best ways to reduce your risk is to get vaccinated. Getting at least one dose of a COVID vaccine before you test positive for COVID lowers your risk of long COVID by about 35% according to a 2022 study published in Antimicrobial Stewardship & Healthcare Epidemiology. Unvaccinated people who recovered from COVID, and then got a vaccine, lowered their own long COVID risk by 27%.
— Medscape

Return to top

Remaining Healthy

Unfortunately, it is up to the individual to take responsibility for their safety by protecting themselves from the real risks (as opposed to fantasy fears propagated by misinformation).

If you are letting yourself get infected and taking no precautions against passing it on, you are not a passive bystander for your next infection. You've participated in creating it.
— Dr Noor Bari

Because COVID is spread by aerosols, high quality N95 masks and improved airflow within buildings are necessary to stem the spread of COVID.

Left on Our Own

After pandemic mandates ended, we found out that we were on our own and had to assess our own tolerance for risk.

The failure to provide current, accurate information segregated by neighbourhood made it impossible for us to accurately assess our personal risk. Wastewater tracking has become our only tool in recognizing pending waves and increased infection rates.

We're moving to a world where we're being asked to manage our own risk, so we should know what that risk is. And it's two things: The risk of getting infected and the risk of a bad thing happening to you if you get infected.

 

We do know that protection against infection wanes, and people can get it multiple times. And on average, people are getting it much more frequently than we get flu.

 

If this virus carries the same long-term risk as flu, but we get it 10 times more often, that risk is going to build. And it's not like influenza's great and fine. It's deadly and causes serious illness.
— Caroline Colijn, Research Chair, Infection and Public Health at Simon Fraser University September 30, 2023

You have the right to protect your own health. Feel free to take any measures you need to protect yourself such as avoiding crowds, indoor shopping or anywhere else you feel unsafe.

I'll let you in on another special secret; it's not anxiety. It's a calm determination to maintain health, in the full knowledge of what Covid can do.
— NHS Palliative Care Medicine Consultant (2023)

Reducing the Risk

You can reduce the possibility of becoming infected with COVID by reducing the risks in these areas (particularly if you're more vulnerable):

One resource that may help you assess risk is the Canadian COVID-19 Hazard Index.

The 5 pillars of protection: masking, air quality, social distancing, surveillance/testing, vaccination.

 

Avoid Closed Spaces with Poor Ventilation

Because COVID is transmitted by aerosols, small or crowded rooms with poor ventilation greatly increase your risk of getting infected. You want to avoid

COVID is Airborne: The science behind safer indoor gatherings.

 

Some settings will continue to be higher risk, including crowded and poorly ventilated public spaces. The risk is higher if activities like singing or shouting, or ones that make people breathe heavily, are occurring.
— Government of Canada

Transmission is 18 times as likely indoors as outside. If you choose to meet others inside, sit further apart from people when conversing. Opening windows and adding high quality air treatment systems can help reduce your risk.

While vaccination is not the panacea that was promised originally, this is largely a result of reduced protection from new COVID variants, waning adherence to getting boosters and the resumption of large public gatherings and international travel.

Outdoor Air Infections Possible

One of the constant messages heard from public health officials is that you are safe outdoors.

The point source outbreak of COVID-19 in Qingkou night market contained a cluster of 131 secondary cases. In a less-enclosed place like the Qingkou night market, aerosols with BA.5.2 strain released by patients could suspend in ambient air up to 1 h 39 min and still be contagious.
— Frontiers in Public Health (July 4, 2023)

Physical Distancing

Does distancing still provide protection? Although not as much as once thought, physical (or “social”) distancing helps to reduce the transmission of diseases like COVID-19.

Attending parties and other events where people are jammed together with strangers, none of whom are taking any precautions, cannot be safe. The farther away from an infected person, the better.

Nothing Magical About 6 Feet

The six feet/two metres distance was based upon the “droplets” theory. While six feet may not be the magic number, distance does matter.

Even with this revised understanding of the spread of COVID, the closer you are to the person with COVID, the higher your risk of catching it. Keeping a degree of distance from others can help but should be viewed as one arrow in a quiver of strategies to reduce your risk of catching COVID.

 

The amount of time you're exposed to a sick person matters. The less time the better (although again, there's no magic number).
— NPR

Wear a Face Mask

Wearing a face mask, even a less advanced one, can help reduce both the risk and the severity of illness. Wearing one indoors in public settings minimizes the possibility of spreading COVID.

Recent medical and epidemiological research suggests that face coverings are effective in reducing viral transmission loads and slowing or even stopping the pandemic's trajectory, while involving minimal downsides.
— ScienceDirect

In order to be effective, the mask must completely cover your mouth and nose, otherwise it is like an unfastened seat belt — it defeats the purpose.

If everyone had worn them correctly, the transmission could have been reduced as much as ninefold.
— Medscape

Masks in Healthcare Settings Critical

While masks should be worn anywhere within enclosed spaces, healthcare settings are critical. Not only is disease more likely to be present, but so are the most vulnerable: the old and immune compromised.

Having a #mask policy in hospitals reduces hospital acquired COVID. Switch from situative masking (standard precautions) to general masking of HCW in contact with patients was followed by a 60% reduction of healthcare-associated infections. No brainer.
— Raina MacIntyre, researcher in emerging infectious diseases

Choosing a Suitable Mask

The better the mask, the better your protection and the less likely you are to become infected or infect someone else.

Unfortunately “well-fitting disposable surgical masks” do not exist out of the box, since there are large gaps on each side of the mask. Surgical masks require modifications to achieve a good fit.

 

That's because they are made to stop liquid splashes during surgery, rather than made to stop airborne transmission.
— Jeremy Howard

Consider fit, filtration and function. If you're finding it difficult to breathe, find a better-fitting mask.

N95 Respirators Most Effective

The most effective protection (N95) looks like a mask, but is called a respirator:

Call them by name: a medical mask vs. a respirator like a 3M N95.

I've found N95s better than masks, not only for their protection but also for the ability to breathe easier.

Any common face mask provides significant protection against the virus that causes COVID-19, but N95 masks are most effective at slashing the amount emitted by infected people….

 

So-called "duckbill" N95 masks scored highest in the study, which measured the exhaled breath of participants who were tested both masked and unmasked to measure comparative outputs of SARS-CoV-2. The inexpensive masks, which have two head straps and a horizontal seam, captured 98% of exhaled virus, according to the study published in eBioMedicine.

 

(To reflect the general public's use of masks, study volunteers were not fit-tested for their masks or trained how to properly wear them.)
— University of Maryland
Respirator masks are relatively expensive — typically a few dollars each…. They can be safely reused, with good retention of their filtration. New designs are comfortable and fit most faces.
— The Conversation

The physics & engineering of N95 mask design is pretty incredible.

 

KN95s May Be Ineffective

However, KN95s may not provide the same level of protection and N95s:

The researchers also found that — in what might come as a surprise to many — cloth masks outperformed the specific brand of KN95 mask that was tested. Surgical masks brought up the rear in performance out of the four types, but even they blocked 70% of the virus, the tests showed.
— University of Maryland
Other types of respirators, such as the KN95 (from China), are subject to their country's standards for performance. Like N95s, KN95s must be able to filter out 95 percent of small particles. But they're not regulated as heavily as N95s…according to the CDC, about 60 percent of KN95s that NIOSH evaluated during 2020 and 2021 didn't meet the standards they were claimed to.
— Consumer Reports [emphasis mine]

Remember, the KN95 is a Chinese manufactured mask which may not have the same ensured quality as the N95.

Time To Transmit Varies by Mask

An article in the Wall Street Journal noted:

It will take 25 hours for an infectious dose of Covid-19 to transmit between people wearing non-fit-tested N95 respirators. If they're using tightly sealed N95s — where only 1% of particles enter the facepiece — they will have 2,500 hours of protection.
— WSJ

The article contains a table showing the time to infection between a person that is infected and one that isn't depending upon which each is wearing (based on results published in Spring 2021):

Time it takes to transmit an infection dose of COVID-19 by quality of the mask.

Mask Studies & Resources

COVID-19 Vaccines

Much like wearing masks, getting vaccinated helps protect others as well as yourself. Being fully vaccinated allows for more freedoms because you're less vulnerable and less likely to infect someone.

Unlike the flu vaccine, protection seems to last no more than 6 months.

However, vaccination on its own is not sufficient to end COVID-19. Vaccination needs to be supported by mask mandates and social distancing until COVID is no longer a threat.

Vaccines Free for Everyone

When booking your vaccination in BC, only your name and BC personal health number (PHN) are required.

Public health officials recommend getting the COVID-19 vaccine at least six months from a previous COVID-19 vaccine dose or known infection.
— Times Colonist

Vaccination Slows Spread; Improves Outcomes

Vaccination helps to slow the spread of COVID and reduces the severity of symptoms. You're less likely to be admitted to hospital or require ICU treatment. Your chances of dying from COVID are greatly reduced.

The unvaccinated disproportionately required hospitalization. A study conducted using data from CNISP determined that unvaccinated patients were 15 times as likely to die as vaccinated patients.

In B.C., the eight per cent of eligible yet unvaccinated individuals make up 54 per cent of COVID cases, 68 per cent of hospitalizations and 72 per cent of patients in intensive care.
— The Tyee December 2021

Not only does vaccination help protect you from being infected, but some studies have indicated that it also reduces the period during which you can spread the disease.

Vaccines are not a guarantee against infection so much as helping to greatly reducing the chance that you'll need to have expensive life-saving treatment on a ventilator in the ICU.

Fortunately, milder strains and new medications have greatly reduced the number being hospitalized for COVID-19, but has not eliminated it. A new, more virulent strain could change that very quickly.

Vaccines Should Be Evolving

Just like the annual flu shot is changing each year, COVID vaccines need to be modified. As variants continue to evolve, it becomes more and more likely that protection from vaccines will fail at some point.

Vaccine Uptake Plunging

The rates of vaccination uptake has dropped significantly, probably indicating the success of antivax efforts on social media and the false signals from governments that the pandemic is over.

Those refusing vaccines have labelled their stance as “freedom” but that choice affects others, much like second-hand smoke affected nonsmokers and those refusing to wear bike helmets added signficantly to the costs of their long-term care in cases of head injury.

Unfortunately the uptake of the new XBB.1.5 vaccine boosters has been low compared to other years, meaning that many people are no longer protected.

Notice how the % pop vaccinations per recommendations (column 2) is dropping over time:

The average weekly severe COVID-19 severe outcomes in Canada by year.

The numbers recorded by Health Canada show this when comparing various vaccine uptake levels:

Canadian vaccination rates: click for original data.

It is concerning that many people have not obtained a COVID vaccine within the last six months.

Vaccine hesitancy is not just driven by the relative mildness of recent variants but also by concerns about the risks of taking the vaccine itself. The unvaccinated disproportionately require hospitalization.

Decreased vaccine uptake will lead to more infections and therefore more strain on healthcare systems everywhere.

 

But any short-term attempt to increase uptake risks damaging the long term. If we keep touting the benefits of vaccines without addressing concerns, we damage public trust.

 

We need to build trust as health regulators to collaborate with people and help them live healthy lives.

 

People often say the anti-vaxxers are the problem, but the problem lies not with the population, but with the regulators. With the best of intentions, they sometimes erode trust by being overly confident in their messages.
— Anton Pottegård, PhD October 30, 2024

Vaccine Risk

The risks from taking the vaccine are relatively low for most people considering that a COVID infection can be severe, can damage other major organs, and can result in long COVID or even death.

Up to January 2024, 105 million doses of COVID vaccine had been administered country-wide. Only one per cent of those were followed by serious health problems, and virtually none in children aged younger than 19.

 

From December 2020 to the end of September 2022, 10,800 Canadians who were unvaccinated died of COVID. Only one thousand who had all their shots died over the same period.
— Times Colonist

However, the risks are not the same for everyone. The decision is definitely more complicated for young, healthy men:

It is now clear that a small percentage of people develop myocarditis, inflammation of the heart muscle, after receiving the Pfizer or Moderna mRNA-based COVID vaccines. Complicating the risk-benefit calculus, the people who are seemingly at the highest risk for vaccine-associated myocarditis are the people at the lowest risk for death from COVID: young men.

 

So how is a young man to decide whether the vaccine is worth it? Most public health officials cast this as a balance between the risk for myocarditis (which is low) and the risk for COVID complications (which is also low). But one thing seems to keep getting missed, which is that COVID infection can give you myocarditis too.

 

We are dealing with very small percentages here. Most data suggests an incidence of myocarditis within 7 days of vaccination that ranges from a low of 1 out of 3 million doses in older adults to a high of 1 in 10,000 in males aged 16–17.

 

As I said, myocarditis happens after COVID infection too. This study found that, for men under age 40, there were 16 excess cases of myocarditis per million individuals after infection compared with 97 after the second dose of the Moderna vaccine. In the overall population, though, there were more cases of myocarditis due to infection than the vaccine.
— Dr F. Perry Wilson, Yale School of Medicine

Anti-vax Activity

Misinformation about the danger of vaccines on social media is not new. However, the amount of anti-vax misinformation became viral after the COVID-19 vaccines were released.

Misinformation about COVID-19 along with increased distrust in authority is having devastating effects on vaccination rates.

Misinformation Intentional?

There is strong evidence that this was intentional and, at least in several instances, promoted by a marketing company registered in both the UK and Russia.

The very fact that many of these claim that tracking mechanisms are embedded into our bodies using these vaccines is ridiculous beyond words.

What does virtually every human on this planet own that is capable of tracking us? Cellphones and similar technologies need to announce their presence to nearby cell towers in order to function. What need would there be to introduce micro-trackers?

There remains a tremendous amount of anti-vax activity on X (Twitter). If these vaccines were dangerous, immunosuppressed patients like myself would fare the worst. That has not been the case.

There is no evidence that mRNA Covid vaccines cause fatal cardiac arrest or other deadly heart problems in teens and young adults, a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention report…shows.

 

Ever since the vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna were authorized in late 2020, anti-vaccination groups in the U.S. have blamed the shots for fatal heart problems in young athletes.
— NBC News April 11, 2024

Recent studies have shown that the risk of cardiovascular incidents is higher than the benefits of the vaccine, particularly for young males.

Measles Re-emerging

We're seeing measles, a disease eliminated in Canada in 1998, resurfacing largely because of vaccine hesitancy. Do folks really want to return to the days when preventable diseases are killing children and adults?

Measles is one of the most contagious diseases in the world and is airborne. If someone with measles exits a room, others can be infected up to two hours after that person has left, said Shelly Bolotin, director of the Centre for Vaccine Preventable Diseases at the University of Toronto's Dalla Lana School of Public Health.

 

"Measles can be a fatal infection. Children less than five years of age, adults older than 20 years of age, pregnant people and people who are immunocompromised are at higher risk for complications from measles."

 

Preventing spread of measles within a community requires 95 per cent of the population to be vaccinated.
— Times Colonist

Sharing My Experience

When sharing the fact that I'm immunosuppressed and fully vaccinated, this response came:

Russ, not all vaccine batches have the same content. A small number of batches (~5%) are responsible for 95% of all COVID vaccine injuries & deaths.

 

You've been lucky to not have received a shot from one of the bad batches. But you are playing Russian roulette here!
— Ned Nikolov, Ph.D.

Watch Seth MacFarlane Rips Bill Maher's Antivax BS To Shreds on YouTube for an in-depth but reasonable discussion on the issue.

Learn more about remaining safe:

Return to top

The Vulnerable

The excuse that “everyone is going to get it” ignores the fact that COVID is not a mild disease, especially for the immunocompromised and other vulnerable populations.

People age 65 and older represent 17 percent of the population but are now responsible for 92% of national COVID-19 deaths. Those aged 75 and over are 6.8% of the population and suffer 68% of COVID-19 deaths.

 

The 1.15 million nursing home residents face by far the highest risk. They have experienced 15% of the 1.1 million national deaths to date, and comprise only 0.35% of the population.
— Time
[A] list of conditions that have been designated as risk conditions for COVID-19 by public health agencies: diabetes, heart disease, asthma or chronic obstructive airway disease, chronic kidney disease, disabling neurological disease, liver disease and immunodeficiency or immunosuppression.
— Paul M. McKeigue et el
It's in the high-risk population where society's attention and resources must be focused — where the disease toll is concentrated and where protection from exposure through both public policy and personal action will have by far the greatest impact. These are the people who must not be left behind as the nation adapts to an indefinite endemic future.
— Time

The Immunocompromised

The immunocompromised must continue to restrict their activities.

It's just easiest to discard folks who don't have the immunity that allows you to have the risk model where you're like, “Hey I can afford an infection or two.”

 

We disappear from our social circles, you don't really think of us. So it's easier to accept policy decisions that are like, “Let these people handle it themselves.”
— Ti Young

Even triple-vaccinated vulnerable patients that continue to receive scheduled boosters have been unable to enjoy many of the benefits available to most double-vaccinated people, including eating indoors in restaurants and other social activities. Visits to essential services like the grocery store, pharmacies and medical appointments are more dangerous.

Vulnerable people are depending upon everyone else that is eligible to get vaccinated in order to make it safe enough for them to rejoin many of the activities that became available to the less vulnerable.

The Covid costs for older people extend beyond the most extreme dangers and include limited activities, diminished lives and continuing isolation and its associated risks.

 

Remember the “senior hours” some supermarkets instituted early in the pandemic, allowing older customers to shop with smaller crowds and less exposure?

 

Now, “public spaces are not accessible to people concerned about infections,” Dr. Raifman said.
— New York Times

A transplant patient in Alberta talks about the reductions to their quality of life:

 

Vaccination in Vulnerable Populations

Those with health conditions can and should definitely be vaccinated.

Vaccination is even more important for those whose immune system is compromised: people with kidney failure, cancer patients on chemotherapy and organ transplant recipients.

Organ transplant patients take immunosuppressants (anti-rejection medications). As the name implies, these medications not only suppress rejection, but also impair the ability to resist infection.

Immunosuppressants are drugs that prevent your immune system from attacking healthy cells and tissues by mistake. Healthcare providers prescribe immunosuppressants to treat certain autoimmune diseases and prevent organ or stem cell transplant rejection.

 

These medications also increase your risk of infection because your immune system isn't working as it should.

Underlying Conditions Affect Outcomes

In addition, those with underlying conditions such as diabetes, heart conditions and COPD are going to experience more complicated recovery.

These patients, even when fully vaccinated, are likely to have worse outcomes should they become infected with COVID.

The coronavirus vaccines are highly effective in protecting against serious disease, but they are not a guarantee. This is especially the case for a subset of elderly and immunosuppressed people whose immune system did not mount a strong response to the shots.
— The New York Times

The mRNA vaccines are safe for immune-compromised individuals. It is more dangerous to remain unprotected.

Inability to Create Antibodies

Immunosuppressed patients were not a part of the pre-release human trials for any of the COVID-19 vaccines. The research indicates that many such patients are unable to create the antibodies required to make the vaccine effective.

Among 436 people who'd had liver, heart, kidney, and other organ transplants, just 17% had detectable antibodies.
— Science Magazine
In the study of more than 650 organ recipients — who take drugs to suppress their immune system so they won't reject their new organs — 46% had no antibody response after two doses of Pfizer or Moderna.
— CNN

A Third Dose Showed Improvement

A study published in the New England Journal of Medicine showed that a third vaccine dose for solid organ transplant patients greatly increases the antibodies needed to fight off COVID infections.

The prevalence of anti–SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was 0%…before the first dose, 4%…before the second dose, 40%…before the third dose, and 68%…4 weeks after the third dose.
— The New England Journal of Medicine

Third dose greatly increases antibody production in solid organ transplant patients.

Even after this third dose, the protection (represented by the dots in chart B) is significantly less than the protection provided to the bulk of the population with just two doses.

Even for young and healthy individuals, the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines wanes within six months.

Despite three doses of vaccine, some transplant recipients will continue to have a poor response, about 40% to 50% of the time compared to the general population and could remain unprotected. Because of this, it is critical that household contacts and healthcare workers be fully vaccinated and that extra cautions should still be taken.
— Kidney Foundation

Resources for Renal Patients

The Kidney Foundation of Canada has provided resources for renal patients: COVID-19: How to protect yourself. These may be useful for others that are more vulnerable.

Return to top

In the Beginning…

The COVID-19 pandemic was a black swan event unlike anything before in modern times, both in its scope and in its impact upon our everyday lives.

A pandemic…is an epidemic of an infectious disease that has spread across a large region, for instance multiple continents or worldwide, affecting a substantial number of individuals.
— Wikipedia
With COVID, you have healthy people who a month ago were totally fine and now they are on their deathbed.
— Dr. Omar Ahmad, Island Health, Nov. 8, 2021

The risks of dying decreased significantly for those that were vaccinated and without pre-existing health conditions when the milder, though highly-contagious, Omicron variety showed up.

Misconceptions About How COVID Spreads

From the very beginning, the misconception that infection involved droplets had us busy washing our hands, wiping surfaces and remaining two metres apart.

This is an account that should be heard of an important struggle: the struggle of a large group of experts who came together at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic to warn the world about the risk of airborne transmission and the consequences of ignoring it.

 

We alerted the World Health Organization about the potential significance of the airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and the urgent need to control it, but our concerns were dismissed.

 

Here we describe how this happened and the consequences. We hope that by reporting this story we can raise awareness of the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration and the need to be open to new evidence, and to prevent it from happening again.

 

The events described here happened during the first months of the pandemic; however, we continue to be asked by the public and the media about them, and so we think that this account should be made public to serve as a warning about what happens when scientific evidence is rejected in favor of beliefs that have become dogma without a firm evidence base.
— Clinical Infectious Diseases, Volume 76, Issue 10, 15 May 2023, Pages 1854–1859

Aerosols Require N95s

Unlike the rapid development of vaccines, the belief that droplets spread COVID remained after four years so that hospitals still required you to wear a surgical mask.

While cloth or medical-grade masks are effective in preventing the spread of droplets, they provide insufficient protection against aerosols.

Improve Indoor Air Filtration

Our focus over the last half-century has been on improving energy conservation. This resulted in buildings that are well-sealed against outdoor air. Sealed buildings have been an ideal environment for the spread of COVID.

Governments failed to provide for improved ventilation in schools when it became clear to most scientists that COVID was spread by aerosols, not droplets.

Unfortunately, the prescription to cleaner air has been overshadowed by too much faith in drugs and the rapid development of vaccines (a historical first) as the true way out of the pandemic.

 

There is no doubt that vaccines, particularly boosters, have dramatically lowered the death toll, but they have not stopped viral transmission, viral evolution, waning immunity or vaccine hesitancy.
— The Tyee

Engineers Not Consulted

Combined with the widespread insistence that COVID is spread by droplets is the fact that engineers have not been consulted.

The thing about cleaner indoor air is that it works on any variant and any airborne disease; it helps against pollution; it helps against all kinds of things. And it doesn't take away anyone's freedoms.
— Christina Page

WHO Knew COVID was Airborne in 2020

For nearly two years WHO, governments and many experts refused to recognize evidence that pointed to aerosol transmission based on a series of problematic assumptions about how respiratory viruses spread.

The air conditioning and ventilation systems has been modified as follows: increased rate of air exchange; increased volume of external air; earlier start of the ventilation earlier that runs longer; no recycling of air; external filters rated as high as we can go and the same as for health facilities/high end commercial use.

 

This approach follows guidance of all available technical literature and professional HVAC institutes/bodies, and we continue to monitor this guidance in case it evolves.
— World Health Organization, May 21, 2020
It took until 20 October 2020 for the agency to acknowledge that aerosols — tiny specks of fluid — can transmit the virus, but the WHO said this was a concern only in specific settings, such as indoor, crowded and inadequately ventilated spaces.

 

Over the next six months, the agency gradually altered its advice to say that aerosols could carry the virus for more than a metre and remain in the air.
— Nature

Ending of Mask Mandates

The end to mandates for indoor masking in BC healthcare & LTC facilities on April 6, 2023 came too soon — a significant factor in the increased spread of the Omicron variants.

Once mandates ended, the “recommended but not required” was ineffective. There is a reason that laws about stopping for traffic lights and stop signs are strictly enforced rather than “recommended.”

The wearing of masks should always be mandatory while indoors in smaller public spaces.

Mask mandates were removed altogether based upon the premise that staff were getting infected in the community (it likely they were NOT masking where not required).

Weaknesses in Healthcare

COVID-19 has highlighted serious weaknesses in our medical system.

Patients were lining the corridors of hospitals even before the pandemic due to the lack of beds.

In terms of ICU capacity, we count approximately half as many beds per 1,000 inhabitants as the United States and nearly a third less than Germany.

 

Even prior to COVID, hallway health care was a regular state of being in many provinces.
— National Post [emphasis mine]
Between August 28, 2022 and August 20, 2023 there were almost 2 million, or to be exact, 1,747,186 primary care visits for symptomatic acute respiratory infections. No wonder health care in BC is overwhelmed.

 

These numbers don't include all those who did not seek medical care, nor do they provide a full picture of the severe and longer term health outcomes that may have followed.
— Protect Our Province BC

A Review Needed

There has been no serious look at these failures in policy.

It is well beyond time for our health-care leaders to empower an objective review of our system's handling of this pandemic. It's their duty to ensure a safe working environment and safe care environment for patients.
— Calgary Herald Aug. 30, 2024

The 2024 Review of the Federal Approach to Pandemic Science Advice and Research Coordination was a look at Canada's preparedness for future emergencies. It reached these conclusions in its report:

The key message of this report is that Canada needs to take further action now if it is to be adequately prepared for future health emergencies. Now is the time to build on the unprecedented collaboration and actions taken during the COVID-19 pandemic and to act on the important lessons learned from this crisis and previous outbreaks of infectious diseases.

 

This requires better monitoring, understanding, and communication of the most important infectious diseases and other public health risks that face the country. These risks must be mitigated in order to minimise their impact when they transpire, including addressing factors that result in disproportionate impacts on certain populations including those in poverty, those experiencing homelessness, Black and other racialized groups, and Indigenous communities.
— Sir Mark Walport, Chair, May 9, 2024

Return to top

Ending of Mask Mandates

Without mask mandates, the “recommended but not required” is not going to be effective.

There is a reason that laws about stopping for traffic lights and stop signs are strictly enforced rather than merely “recommended.”

The wearing of masks should always be mandatory inside hospitals, clinics and long term care centres and recommended in smaller public spaces.

Mask mandates in health-care settings were reinstated in BC as of October 3, 2023 but removed again on April 8, 2024. COVID is still being treated as a seasonal disease even though the evidence indicates this is untrue.

The Cost is High

The cost of ignoring protections is high.

Amidst chronic staffing shortages, hospital inpatient units across Canada have seen a rise in the rate of unintentional harm to patients for the third year in a row, according to the Canadian Institute for Health Information (CIHI).

 

At the same time, nurses and health care professionals in these units logged 14 million hours of overtime in 2021–2022 — a 50% increase from the previous year.
— Canadian Federation of Nurses Unions (emphasis mine)

Healthcare Already Stretched

We are still not prepared for a huge COVID wave.

We're seeing these conditions regularly in British Columbia and elsewhere even when the infection rates are low. Hospital ERs are turning people away or have extremely long waits (to the point where people are leaving the ER untreated).

If the health system collapses, a lot more people are likely to die. Imagine being in a serious car accident and being told to go home because the hospitals are full.

There is No Financial Incentive

Hospitals are provided with a fixed budget rather than a fee per patient or service. In this scenario, paying overtime to run operating rooms or expensive equipment like MRIs and bone density machines is shelved. Major equipment is only acquired by fundraising instead of being included in budgets.

This results in patients waiting approximately three years for surgeries and treatments that could be provided much earlier if a different financial model was used.

The experience for our elected officials and hospital governing bodies is much different. Patients cannot pay for treatment in their own province (but may do so in another in they can afford it).

Fixing the System Could Take Decades

Fixing the system will take years if not decades as well as a restructuring of the health system. In the meantime, too many patients die awaiting treatment in a system better prepared to offer MAID than timely treatment.

The following video looks at these issues:

 

How Sweden Fixed the Problem

Start the above video at the 1539 mark to learn how Sweden fixed the issue of delays by forcing government-funded, government-run hospitals to compete against government-funded, privately-run hospitals. If patients weren't provided treatment within 90 days at the government-run hospitals, they were given the option to seek treatment anywhere they chose — also at government expense.

Weaknesses in the Economy

The “just-in-time” delivery of goods manufactured overseas proved to be vulnerable. Store shelves were empty and there were critical industry-wide shortages caused by increased demand at a time when manufacturing in China was delayed by lockdowns.

Shipping containers were not being returned to Asia. Ships were waiting offshore for weeks instead of a day or two and shore crew sizes were thinned by COVID. Delays caused by returning shipping containers was deemed excessive.

Small Business Suffered

The pandemic has been extremely profitable for big business and the very wealthy. Not so for smaller companies and businesses. While Costco and Walmart were able to remain open simply because they had a pharmacy, many smaller businesses were shuttered.

An estimated one-in-seven small businesses will never recover.

Poor Drug & Criminal Legislation

The opioid crisis exploded the number of drug users outside their doors. Combined with a catch-and-release policy, shoplifting reached extreme levels as offenders often committed the same crime after being released before the police finished the paperwork.

Allowing drug consumption and the shoplifting and other crimes that follow it have made it even harder for even medium-sized businesses.

Inflation

Incomes have not kept up with inflation, primarily the cost of food and housing but also taxes. Worker shortages have become common and is speeding up the move to self-service checkouts.

The levels of immigration have strained our social services, medical system and housing supply. Unaffordable interest rates may be the final straw.

Return to top

Massive Failures of Governments

There was a massive failure at all levels of government to protect the vulnerable (children, the elderly and those with health issues) or stop the spread of COVID-19.

Canada's political classes, which are largely rich and shielded from the pandemic, are likely to become more callous as the pandemic evolves.

 

The cruel truth we are now facing has been voiced by the editors of the British Medical Journal. The most important lessons from this pandemic, they wrote, “are less about the coronavirus itself but what it has revealed about the political systems that have responded to it.”
— The Tyee 2022

Interestingly, the failures in government are almost universal despite political leanings or whether democratic or autocratic. Often reactions were accepted more easily when others were inconvenienced for safety of a majority than when people felt their rights were being compromised for others' safety.

In a pandemic the majority of British people want other people to be told what to do, even if it means being told what to do themselves. This has not been the case everywhere.

 

In large parts of the US, the public proved deeply resistant to the many varieties of mandated behaviour, particularly when it came to mask-wearing, which became a proxy for a whole host of other resentments and frustrations.

 

The pandemic latched on to what unites us and what divides us. It did nothing to change the contours of those divisions.
— The Guardian

Worker Shortages

The failure to protect workers has led to staff shortages, ferry and airline cancellations as well as the too frequent closing of ERs and long waits for ambulances. Too many employees lack any sick days. For the most vulnerable, missing work means lost wages.

Many lost jobs or income (some permanently) while governments racked up astronomical debts that could take generations to pay down due to rising inflation rates.

Last year, the government spent $24.5 billion servicing the debt; Desjardins forecasts debt charges of $49.8 billion next year.
— National Post (Oct. 31, 2022)

Uncertainty, supply chain issues and workplace absences are continuing to have a damaging effect on the economy while big business pushes for an end to mandated isolation periods or any restrictions at all.

Unfortunately, the cost of an “economy-first” measurement of success has meant that COVID was allowed to burn out of control. Schools were left open so parents could work and quarantine times were lowered then eliminated altogether.

Schools are a critical part of any society in training the next generation, providing important socialization, and enabling the economy to function. They are also recognized drivers of infectious disease spread. We provide evidence that SARS-CoV-2 can be transmitted in schools, and that this affects not only those in schools, but also the communities inextricably linked with them.
— Laura F White, Eleanor J. Murray and Arijit Chakravarty

Political Decisions Had Gutted BC Healthcare

Several generations of provincial governments cut health care costs by reducing the number of doctors, nurses and hospital beds. As well, the federal government failed to meet its funding obligations.

These shortages were not caused by the pandemic, but are the result of political decisions to limit healthcare spending at any cost. The seeds of the current crisis go back more than 35 years:

In 1985 the provincial government had restricted new billing numbers in an effort to limit physicians moving to the province.

 

In the early 1990s the government imposed a hard cap on MSP funding. If spending appeared to be in danger of over-reaching the strictly enforced hard-capped budget, the fees paid to physicians would be proportionately reduced under the term pro-rationing.

 

Eventually the physicians' response to this was to close their offices and operating rooms for enough days to balance the budget.
— Chris Pengilly

We see the legacy of this today, where physicians find the cost of maintaining an office and serving patient is no longer financially viable.

Hopefully, the changes announced at the end of October 2022 will encourage more doctors to find it financially viable to remain in practice while we ramp up our medical schools' output of doctors and nurses.

What saved Canada was a largely willing and conforming populace that withstood stringent public health measures and achieved among the world's highest levels of vaccination coverage.

 

In other words, Canadians delivered on the pandemic response while its governments faltered.
— National Post

Failure to Fight Misinformation

Misinformation and unsafe protests were allowed to go unchallenged and eventually governments caved to selfish demands.

There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.
— Søren Kierkegaard (1813–1855)

This “protest against freedom to choose” didn't stop antivaxxers from adding to the overburdened hospitals when they were infected, often leading to cancellation of surgeries and delayed treatment for other patients.

Too many governments have failed to adhere to basic norms of institutional rationality and transparency, too many people — often influenced by misinformation — have disrespected and protested against basic public-health precautions, and the world's major powers have failed to collaborate to control the pandemic.
— The Lancet

Governments refuse to acknowledge that COVID is airborne. Protections are limited to vaccination, which has steadily declined as people buy the false message that COVID is over.

Too Many Wrong Assumptions

Assumptions were made about the inevitability of everyone getting infected and the ability of vaccination to protect everyone.

Governments everywhere dropped mandates, essentially throwing children, the elderly and those with health issues under the bus.

Children aged 10–19y played the greatest relative role in propagating Omicron epidemics, particularly when schools were open, followed by children aged 0–9y and adults aged 20–29y, as well as adults aged 30–49y.

 

Persons aged over 50y played a more limited role in propagating Omicron infection in the community.

 

Additional efforts are needed to increase vaccination coverage in children aged 10–19y, as well as younger children and young adults to mitigate Omicron epidemics in the community.
— MedRxiv.org
In a war, the young fight and give up their lives to keep the old safe, who in return pledge to make life better for the those who are being asked to make the ultimate sacrifice. It is part of what creates a sense of mutual obligation between the generations.

 

In Covid, it was the old who lost their lives, but it was still the young who made many of the sacrifices, in lost employment and educational opportunities. That makes the tradeoff more complicated.

 

Its legacy has not been a new intergenerational compact. If anything, political differences between the generations are wider than ever, and Covid has exacerbated them. The young have not been repaid for their sacrifice with the kinds of promises that tend to follow an actual war: better housing, greater educational access, full employment.

 

This is in part because the price paid by the younger generation has proved far harder to quantify than the physical toll the disease took on the old.
— The Guardian

Schools Were Not Safe

Assumptions about low transmission rates for schools have been proven false in several studies.

We have learned that many mitigation measures are not effective and removing them will make it easier to focus on effective measures. This includes temperature checks, plexiglass barriers, and excessive surface cleaning. These mitigation measures become “hygiene theater” in that they provide false reassurance that interventions are in place while also being ineffective at preventing spread and contributing to “pandemic fatigue.” — declining trust in and energy for pandemic mitigations.
— Laura F White, Eleanor J. Murray and Arijit Chakravarty
A pilot project in the Omaha Public School district detected new SARS-CoV-2 infections which wouldn't have been detected otherwise, indicating that infection and case rates in schools are much higher that what's being reported through routine self-initiated tests and reporting.

 

Infection rates detected by the OPS PROTECTS program, in a partnership with UNMC, were two-and-a-half times higher for staff and nearly six times higher for students than what was routinely observed. Additionally, the project found almost 10 times the cases per population than what was observed through community testing in the surrounding county.
— University of Nebraska Medical Center
[W]hat I wanted to ask is, what are we currently doing to protect our children from a CDC level 3 biohazard while we try to figure out how bad the organ damage is going to be, and what their future health going into adulthood is going to look like?

 

And the answer I've been able to come up with so far, is “actually very little.”
— Dr. Rae Duncan

Gaslighting

Because of gaslighting the public, withholding vital information and ending extensive testing, “personal risk assessments” are impossible.

The failure to mask in classrooms was a significant factor in the high incidence of respiratory illness in children in the fall of 2022.

Masks have played a key role in keeping us all safe throughout the Covid-19 pandemic. Yet, three years into the pandemic, we still see conflicting stories in the news about masks on a daily basis.

 

Out of the 78 papers analyzed in the review, only two actually studied masking during the Covid-19 pandemic. And both of those found that masks did protect wearers from Covid-19.

 

The overselling of the Cochrane study is a classic example of cherry-picking, where biased groups highlight a subset of data that support their position, while ignoring the larger pool of evidence that disagrees with them.
— The Guardian

Parents weren't being told of outbreaks in their child's school and governments continued to claim that children were safe (and not a source of transmission). Perhaps the need to avoid a absentee workforce was deemed a more pressing issue.

While official sources should provide the most accurate information, our leaders and health authorities have not always been honest with us. “Optics” have overshadowed good leadership.

B.C.'s Provincial Health Officer, Dr. Bonnie Henry, her medical health officers, Minister of Health Adrian Dix, and his health ministry have never warned you about post Covid health impacts beyond an acute infection.

 

They've never told you about the chronic debilitating medical condition that can affect every organ in the body, including your heart, lungs, pancreas, kidneys, brain, gut, blood vessels and more.

 

But they've all known about these harms for three years. They've known that no one in our population is without risk. They've known all this and yet have continued to downplay the seriousness of COVID-19.
— Protect Our Province BC, April 2023

Meanwhile, the ultra-rich and heads of state demand that visitors test for COVID as well as wear masks in their presence. Missing masks in photo ops lend credibility to the line that “COVID is over.”

Politics, Not Science

It is unfortunate that politics seems to have played a larger part in decisions than science.

Unfortunately, western political leaders and some public health officials have decided to indulge the worst kind of individualist impulse: the desire to choose your own reality, including the fantasy that the pandemic is over.

 

[P]ublic health policy has effectively been rewritten in light of the desires, demands and delusions of anti-maskers, anti-vaxxers and COVID-19 denialists.
— The Conversation

Physical distancing and cloth masks were both based upon the assumption that transmission was caused by droplets rather than aerosols.

The theory was that droplets would get caught even in a cloth mask and certainly in a medical-grade mask and that by remaining six feet apart the droplets were mostly going to fall before reaching you.

Patients in hospitals without COVID were separated from infected patients only by a curtain — probably enough protection if the droplets theory was true. However, because COVID is airborne, think of how little protection that curtain would provide from cigarette smoke originating in the next bed.

Government Denials

Governments refused to treat COVID-19 as an airborne illness, largely because COVID-19 didn't work like prior respiratory viruses, something policy-makers were slow to accept.

Governments continued to hold onto the droplets theory (and its protection protocols) in spite of early evidence that COVID is airborne.

Early in the pandemic, the World Health Organization stated that SARS-CoV-2 was not transmitted through the air. That mistake and the prolonged process of correcting it sowed confusion and raises questions about what will happen in the next pandemic.
— Nature

Vaccination-only Policies Failing Us

Canada has followed a vaccine-only policy since Omicron appeared. While uptake was strong in the beginning, many people no longer get regular boosters.

Unfortunately the messaging that was so ubiquitous early in the vaccine campaign was that a vaccine would be two doses. And in truth, we know from decades of vaccinology that two doses is rarely sufficient to give long lasting, what we call immune memory, really long lasting responses.
— Dawn Bowdish, professor at McMaster University

Nosocomial COVID Infections

Healthcare-acquired infections (HAIs), also known as nosocomial infections, are infectious diseases acquired in health care facilities such as hospitals.
— CNISP

Hospitals didn't test for COVID-19 and placed infected patients alongside uninfected patients, separated only by a cloth curtain — ineffective protection against aerosols.

When people go to the hospital, they expect to get better, not worse. Abandonment of mask mandates has unsurprisingly led to a rise in hospital-acquired infections, and outbreaks.

 

About one in five to ten people who catch COVID-19 in a hospital after having come there for some completely other reason, end up dying. The normal rate of deaths is only two or three percent.

 

This is fully preventable, and entirely attributable to policies of the institutions which allow diseases to spread unchecked.
— World Health Network

Vulnerable patients are forced to walk through unprotected areas even if their particular clinic or treatment area has precautions.

More than 14,000 people in England and Wales died with Covid after catching the virus in hospital.

 

According to official NHS data in England and Wales, 14,047 Brits died in hospital after they caught the virus following admission, whilst at least 69,337 people caught the virus only after having been admitted.
— The Mirror

Canadians are paying for the collection of the rates of nosocomial infections, yet have no access to that data.

Excess Deaths

88,803 more people died than expected in Canada (excess deaths) from Jan 25/20 to May 5/23.

 

Nearly double the deaths of WWII or the 1918–20 flu pandemic.
— Tara Moriarty

In spite of high rates of transmission and excess deaths, BC decided to end masking mandates in hospitals and LTC facilities on April 6, 2023. This risks the wellbeing of those at higher risk including seniors and immune compromised individuals.

The fact that staff were getting infected outside of these facilities suggests that mask mandates were working — that staff was being infected where mask mandates had already ended.

Return to top

Verify Information

Don't rely on or spread misinformation. Instead, Verify information using reliable sources before spreading it.

“SIFT” Your Information Sources

Stop,
Investigate the source,
Find better coverage, and
Trace claims, quotes and media to the original context.
— The SIFT methodology

Help stop the spread of misinformation! Check first. Share after.
CheckThenShare.ca

Choose Your Sources Carefully

Use only reliable sources that can back their findings with hard evidence.

Unfortunately, many officials focused on political image rather than accurate information and protections.

“Official” Sources

Call 1-888-268-4319 for non-medical COVID info 7:30–8:00, 7 days a week.

Reliable Sources

COVID Antigen Rapid Tests

Rapid antigen test kits are available for pickup at pharmacies in BC (listed by regional health authority. You don't have to show ID and can have a friend or family member pick up a test kit for you if you can't.

Return to top

Fake News

There are a lot of fake news and misinformation designed to scare you, especially on social media.

We live in a conspiratorial age of meme medicine — an era when lots of people would rather take untested snake oil hawked by politicians, pundits and B-list celebrities than vaccines whose effectiveness and safety have been proved in clinical studies and that have been approved by the F.D.A.
— New York Times

One example from COVID Georgia, Fact check: Covid as a leading cause of death in children shows how the underlying data can be verified (or, in this case, disputed).

Social Media Unreliable

Social media has been used to propagate false information and anti-vax propaganda.

[C]omments on vaccine-related content were flooded with anti-vax propaganda, pseudo-scientific claims, and other false information and lies about the virus and the vaccines.
— Gizmodo

Dr. Christiane Northrup went viral with some false claims about the mRNA COVID vaccines.

Trusted Twitter Accounts

Twitter has been one area of reliable news, including Tara Moriarty, PoP BC and Dr. Lyne Filiatrault.

Unfortunately, Twitter's use by those promoting fake news have greatly damaged this resource. Those posting this sort of misinformation are being held accountable by adding Community Comments when such material is flagged.

Return to top

 

Related Resources

On this site:

Found this resource useful?
Buy Me A Coffee

 

 

Return to top
RussHarvey.bc.ca/resources/pandemic.html
Updated: January 11, 2025

Copyright © 1996– | Privacy | Navigation | RHC Design